Barring a massive Republican voter disenfranchisement effort (which is already under way albeit with mixed results) Obama’s going to win this thing. (Obligatory mention of the fact that you damn sure better vote in any case.)
That said, like most people who spend entirely too much time following American politics this kerfuffle over analyst Nate Silver’s prediction model is sadly fascinating.
“This is really scary. It means that if these people triumph, science — or any kind of scholarship — will become impossible. Everything must pass a political test; if it isn’t what the right wants to hear, the messenger is subjected to a smear campaign.
It’s almost besides the point to notice that the whole notion that Nate Silver is somehow serving Obama’s interests by skewing the results is bizarre. This race is going to be decided by actual votes, not perceptions of ‘momentum’. But then posturing and bragging seems to be central to the right’s theory, for reasons I don’t get.”
Just because he’s using mathematical models that were over 90% accurate in both Obama’s victory in ’08 and the major GOP victory in ’10, and he’s currently showing a roughly 70% likelihood of an Obama victory for ’12, Republican are, as is their wont, shitting their pants and claiming he’s a Democratic plant.
Jesus Republicans, it’s math and statistics. I realize you have an innate aversion to things like logical inquiry and empiricism, and Silver is so GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY and all, but calm the fuck down. People will vote and in one week we’ll get to see if we continue on a reasonable but kind of slow economic recovery (still light-years ahead of where Bush brought us in 2008) or if we get the man who will literally say anything to get him and his robot-family elected, who will then start yet another war against a country filled with brown people that we will lose horribly.